Analyzing the Maple Leafs' off-season: Better team, bigger questions

The Toronto Maple Leafs made massive changes to their entire organization this past summer, and many fans will be grateful. By the time last season ended the vibes were bad, the team stopped winning, the players stopped pushing, and management seemed out of ideas. 

Pruning the shrubs makes room for fresh growth, and much pruning was done.

We don’t know for sure that the Leafs are going to be good yet, per se, but they’re very likely better than last season, which also doesn’t mean a ton just yet. “Better” is great when you’re coming off a playoff season; “better” when you miss the playoffs by 21 points is the baseline expectation. 

So, what are we really looking at this season? As we assess that question, I think it’s best to keep it fairly zoomed out to start. I always found that trying to assemble the lineup led me to obvious strengths and questions, so let’s start there with the forwards:

Hope feels possible because Toronto landed Gavin McKenna. They had an aging roster of shoot-first triggermen and few guys who could dish it, so adding McKenna is an instant upgrade; he sees the ice exceptionally well. Matthew Knies took a step as a passer, Easton Cowan should be better too. And with help from the improved back end, I expect they’ll pass the puck better. 

Out of the gate, I don’t have McKenna on the top line. If you remember Auston Matthews’ four-goal debut, he also didn’t start on the top line, but was on line three alongside Zach Hyman and William Nylander, both of whom were rookies expected to get sheltered minutes.

Over the past few years when the Leafs have acquired a player they hoped would help the top line, they started them on that top line. This establishes raised expectations, which can set people up to fail. Joe Thornton started in that spot and dropped, creating a negative early vibe. Nick Ritchie started in that spot and did the same. You’re far better off to ease McKenna in and elevate him in certain spots in certain games so he can build confidence and eventually feel as though he’s earned a top-line spot that the team would clearly love him to have.

I’ve got Roslovic on the top line almost as a placeholder. He’s got a couple things going for him: one is that last season demonstrated he’s got the tools to light things up in October hockey, where teams make mistakes and chances are plentiful. He’s also got a track record playing with Matthews when they were junior-aged, and is still skilled enough to take advantage of what Matthews can create. Matthews' most common linemate in 2025-26 at five-on-five was Max Domi, so having Roslovic (who’s doubled Domi’s goal totals the past couple years) in that role should at least be considered a viable starting option.

Past that, if you intend to have a more purpose-built third and fourth line (say, defending, checking, hitting), you can’t really include Nylander or John Tavares in the bottom six. They need offensive opportunities to help the club, and to get that, they’re going to need a winger with a little spunk, some jump, and the ability to win the puck back for them. After playing a meaningful role in the Marlies' Calder Cup win, I’ve got Cowan getting first crack at those minutes. 

So, now the bottom six again:    

McKenna — Sissons — Paul
Joshua — Blueger — Duhaime

This third line is sort of the inverse of how I just described the second line. This time, two guys are helping one. McKenna could use some dogs, guys who get the puck and go the paint and will be willing to stand up for him if anyone takes liberties. If you saw how Matthew Schaefer got treated early last season, you’ll recall that teams went at him hard to see if he’d fold, but the Islanders had his back at every turn. That allowed him to thrive all season long with his chest puffed out. 

Sissons and Paul are both proven grinders who provide structure and can do some dirty work so McKenna can get a few moments where he has time and space with the puck. They’re also good enough to finish if McKenna gets them some good looks.

This fourth line is something the Leafs need: a trio where everyone fully intends to be a bottom-six player. There’s no Jason Spezza or Thornton, there’s no Wayne Simmonds at the end of his career, none of these guys are like “I’ll start here but I don’t intend to play here all season.” Joshua, Blueger and Duhaime are bottom-six guys, and you’d be shocked how much accepting a role helps players excel at it. 

Duhaime can bang, while Blueger and Joshua have established chemistry from their time in Vancouver. 

I’ll also note that I used “bottom six” above and not “fourth line” because this group would probably play as much as the third line. (I'd also note that in this layout McKenna would get extra minutes on the top power play unit so he’s not wasting away with 11 minutes a night.)

It’s reasonable to say that a fully-healthy Leafs forward group looks playoff-calibre. None of this even touches the biggest question though: just what is Matthews going to be in 2026-27? Is he still a superstar, a star, or just really good? Is that top line the huge asset it has to be? I’d consider the Leafs and Matthews like the Jays and Vladimir Guerrero — if their superstar is great, the team can be great. When their guy struggles, the team’s ceiling is a lot lower. With Matthews, the answers will likely be health-related. If he plays 84 games this season, could the Leafs get something like 45 and 45 for 90 points from him?

There’s less to say about the defence, which is better overall, but has a huge floor-to-ceiling range.

The addition of Darren Raddysh is the first one I can remember in years where it just seemed to make perfect sense. Right shot, good age, bomber on the power play, check, check, check. And given some of the contracts other defencemen signed this summer, his deal already looks like a winner. 

I’ve got him playing with Jake McCabe, who’s been asked to do a ton for the Leafs the past couple years, but having him on the left side just makes the puzzle pieces fit. He’s physical, defends hard, and can move the puck too. This would be a nice pair.

Morgan Rielly and Chris Tanev — the other defence signing that just made clear sense in recent years — is a bit of a wild card, isn’t it? Their numbers together have probably been better than you remember. For Rielly, his expected goals over the past two seasons go from about 51 per cent at five-on-five to 58 per cent when paired with Tanev, so it’s certainly one way to get the most out of whatever Rielly is at this point. 

I wouldn’t be shocked to see a better Rielly this year (whose most-frequent partner last year was an injured Brandon Carlo), or to see Tanev make a significant difference to the blue line. But the other side of it possible too. Rielly just fully hitting the downslope of his career, or Tanev never being healthy enough to play are both very possible outcomes as well. The Leafs can probably survive one of those things, but not both. 

For the third pair, I’ve started Emil Andrae on his proper side, with Oliver Ekman-Larsson playing his off-side. This pairs a young Swede with a good pro and Ekman-Larsson should give Andrae a chance to have success in sheltered minutes. Last year the Leafs saw Philippe Myers play half a season’s worth of games on the bottom pair, while Stecher played 58. A half-dozen other names played real games on the bottom pair, too. OEL and Andrae can move the puck and make plays better than any pair third pair the Leafs have had in a while. They aren’t bruisers, but Toronto's forwards just need the puck in their hands more often, and these guys should do that.

You don’t win a Stanley Cup with this defence corps. But if it’s healthy, it’s a playoff-worthy group. I also think if the Leafs are competitive this year, the team continues to add.

As for the goaltending trio:

Bobrovsky
Stolarz 
Akhtyamov

Any one of them could have a great year, couldn’t they? It feels impossible to predict, but the way Sergei Bobrovsky takes care of himself should give you hope that he can shoulder a decent workload. And between the other two, the Leafs should get some good showings from their non-starter games. 

Of course, we just did this with Tanev-Rielly. These high ceilings don’t come with high floors. There are several layers of basement available, too.

You don’t know, the Leafs don’t know, and I don’t know. Heck, the players themselves don’t either. Unlike the five or so teams with legit stud goalies, you can put the Leafs in a class without about 15 other teams throwing up their hands, shrugging their shoulders, and saying “One of these guys should be good, no?”

The Leafs' team save percentage was dead average last year. I can see why they’re hopeful it’ll be better.

The thing I like most about the Leafs heading into this season is that they made genuine, real change, and if things aren’t going well, it feels like their new GM John Chayka will be aggressive enough to change it some more. Their head coach has some positive ideas about committing to more offence, which they need to get back to. A fresh staff means a fresh motivation for players, and a new culture can take hold. 

If you can’t tell by now, I liked the Leafs' off-season, but I’m fully aware it has the potential to go sideways based on what they get from Matthews, McKenna, Rielly, Tanev, and Bobrovsky.

It’s going to take some time for all this change to feel comfortable, and there may be some ugly games early. But if they can at least hang around the middle of the division for a few weeks, they should be able to start putting together some good efforts. 

If nothing else, the vibes are different, and for the better. Leafs training camp starts next week, and the whole whack of questions I've mentioned above will start to be answered.